A Numerical Model of Philippine Population Growth: Child Policy, Quantitative Insights and Challenges

The study investigates the effect of imposing an n-child policy by forecasting the population of the Philippines using a discrete age-structured compartmental model. Based on the results of the projection, a policy promoting a maximum of two children per couple leads to a transient stabilization (i.e., the population eventually declines after attaining zero-growth rate). A three-child policy may also lead to stabilization yet may converge beyond the calculated Verhulstian carrying capacity of approximately 200M. However, overshooting the carrying capacity can be resolved by increasing the available resources that can support the escalating population size. A child policy dictating a maximum of four or more children per couple results to a similar population growth as the status quo due to the inherent declining birth rate. With the declining birth rate trend in the Philippines, population DA Talabis, EJV Manay, AL Babierra, JJM Flores, JF Rabajante (2013) stabilization is realizable even without implementing a child policy but only after 100 years. Furthermore, this study estimated the future age structure and the resultant GDP per capita income associated with each child policy. Keywords— Demography, population projection, child policy, zero growth, economy, logistic, carrying capacity, age-structured model, Philippines